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411,051

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$18

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 6:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T10:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T10:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how those probabilities have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $18, and the total volume traded to date, which is $18. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, it's important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and fundamental data, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and potentially reacting more quickly to new information. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes anticipate events before they are reflected in conventional analysis. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into overall market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future price of crude oil. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective judgment of all participants trading in this market, and it’s constantly updated as new information becomes available. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the odds are responsive to changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of crude oil, during the 6:30AM-6:45AM ET window on October 16th, is higher or lower than its price at 6:30AM ET. The final price will be sourced from a recognized and widely followed financial data provider, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result for this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply or political instability, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or GDP growth figures), will also play a role. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in inventory levels reported by the Energy Information Administration could cause substantial shifts in the price of crude oil and, consequently, in this market.