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405,996

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$19

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 4:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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Outcome
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Chance %
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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T08:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T08:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the total volume traded – currently at $19 – and the 24-hour volume, which is $19. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market has priced in information over time. This provides a quick overview of trader sentiment regarding the direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer point estimates or ranges for crude oil price movements, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic view of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments than slower-moving analyst reports. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective forecast of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to rapidly adjust to new information and evolving expectations regarding oil prices, creating a real-time assessment of probability.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the price of crude oil, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider, is higher or lower during the 4:30AM-4:45AM ET window on October 16th. The final price will be determined by publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome for this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Major geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in OPEC+ policy, would likely have a substantial impact. Unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inflation, could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, any significant news regarding inventory levels, refinery outages, or changes in energy policy could influence trader sentiment and cause the market to react accordingly. Monitoring these factors is key to understanding potential shifts in the crude oil price market.