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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3AM-3:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$13

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3AM-3:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3AM-3:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 3:15 AM EST

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3AM-3:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T07:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T07:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 3:00 AM and 3:15 AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a price history chart showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, along with the total volume traded in this market, currently at $13, and the 24-hour volume, which is $13. This provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the direction of crude oil prices during that specific window.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of whether crude oil prices will rise or fall during the specified timeframe. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on individual models and biases. While analysts may offer varied predictions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, providing a single, quantifiable probability. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aren't always in agreement with polls or expert opinions, and can sometimes offer a contrarian view on the likely outcome.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future price of crude oil. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective expectations of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price isn't set by a central authority but emerges from the interactions of traders, creating a dynamic and responsive indicator of market sentiment. The current volume of $13 shows the level of interest in this particular outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether the price of crude oil, as reported by a major financial data provider, is higher or lower at 3:15 AM ET on October 16th than it was at 3:00 AM ET. The final price difference will determine whether the 'Crude Oil Up' or 'Crude Oil Down' outcome is declared, and all contracts will be settled accordingly.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or shifts in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also drive price movements. Additionally, any significant announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or changes in energy policy could have a substantial impact on trader sentiment and, therefore, the price of contracts in this market.