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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3:45AM-4AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3:45AM-4AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3:45AM-4AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 4:00 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3:45AM-4AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T07:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T07:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You'll find a real-time display of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a clear overview of market activity and where traders are placing their bets regarding future oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies can arise due to factors not fully captured in conventional analysis, such as unexpected supply disruptions or shifts in global demand. It's common to see this market anticipate changes before they are widely recognized by traditional sources, offering a potentially valuable alternative viewpoint.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations. The current implied probability of the price going up is not available, but can be derived from the current buy and sell orders on the platform.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 3:45 AM and 4:00 AM Eastern Time on October 16th. The market will determine whether the price increased or decreased during that period, and that determination will be verified against reliable financial data sources. Traders will then be paid out based on their predictions.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, or significant changes in global economic growth forecasts could all impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and unexpected disruptions to oil supply, such as weather events or pipeline outages, could also trigger substantial price movements. Any news that alters the perceived supply and demand balance for crude oil is likely to influence this market.