TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.1b

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$118,207,155

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2,797,847,289

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$1,741,482,519

507,381

Markets across

37,614

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2,852

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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62%

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$35

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 3:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T07:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T07:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the implied probability of the price of crude oil increasing or decreasing between 3:15AM and 3:30AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a history of how the odds have shifted over time, along with the current 24-hour trading volume of $35. The total volume traded on this market is currently $35, providing insight into overall interest. This information helps traders understand market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, it's difficult to draw a direct comparison between the odds in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or analyst reports. This can lead to differences in predicted probabilities, as this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders actively assessing the likelihood of a price increase or decrease. It’s worth noting that analysts’ predictions are often point estimates, while this market provides a probabilistic view.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down within the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective assessment of all participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the implied probability of the outcome, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood of the price increasing.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the crude oil price at 3:15AM-3:30AM ET on October 16th is higher or lower than its price at the start of that period. The final price will be verified against credible public sources, and the outcome will be determined based on this comparison. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future markets.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, could cause rapid price swings. Major economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or supply, could also impact the market. Additionally, any surprising announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or shifts in inventory levels could move the price of crude oil and, consequently, the odds in this market.