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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2AM-2:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2AM-2:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2AM-2:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 2:15 AM EST

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2AM-2:15AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T06:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T06:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 16th. You’ll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting what traders are willing to bet. It also provides a price history chart, showing how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Total volume for this market is $0, providing insight into overall interest.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw direct comparisons between the predictions reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts offer price targets for crude oil, these are often based on complex models and assumptions about geopolitical events, supply and demand, and economic growth. This market represents a different type of forecast – a collective judgment of traders willing to put their money behind their beliefs about a short-term price movement. It's a real-time assessment of probability, unlike static analyst reports.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating the odds you see on the dashboard. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the odds reflect the aggregated sentiment of all participants on Predict, and are not influenced by activity on any other prediction market.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 2:00 AM and 2:15 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 2:15 AM ET than at 2:00 AM ET, the ‘Crude Oil Up’ outcome will win. Conversely, if the price is lower, ‘Crude Oil Down’ will prevail. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected news regarding OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical instability in major oil-producing regions, or significant shifts in global economic forecasts could all drive price movements. Even weather events, such as hurricanes disrupting oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, could have an impact. Furthermore, any surprise announcements related to U.S. oil inventories or changes in demand from major consumers like China could cause traders to reassess their positions and shift the odds.