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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:45AM-3AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$15

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:45AM-3AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:45AM-3AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 3:00 AM EST

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:45AM-3AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T06:45:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T06:45:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, alongside the total volume traded in this market, currently at $15, and the 24-hour volume, which is $15. The dashboard also displays a price history chart, allowing you to see how the market’s predictions have evolved over time. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, it's important to note that analysts’ forecasts for crude oil prices vary widely depending on the source and methodology. Some analysts predict an increase in prices due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, while others foresee a potential decrease driven by economic slowdowns and increased production. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on Predict who are putting their capital behind their beliefs. Comparing the implied probability from this market to the range of analyst opinions can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the price of crude oil will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect changing expectations. The current implied probabilities are driven entirely by user activity on Predict.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of crude oil between 2:45 AM and 3:00 AM Eastern Time on October 16th. If the price is higher at that time than it was at the start of the period, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail. The final result will be determined by publicly available price data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events in major oil-producing regions, such as disruptions to supply from the Middle East or Russia, could drive prices higher. Conversely, signs of a global economic slowdown or increased oil production from OPEC+ could push prices down. Major economic data releases, like inflation reports or GDP figures, can also impact market sentiment. Additionally, any significant news related to oil inventories or demand forecasts could cause fluctuations in the price of this market.