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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$36

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 2:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T06:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T06:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the price history showing how they’ve changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $36, and the total volume traded to date, which is $36. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential movement of crude oil prices.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of opinions and information. Often, you’ll see prediction markets reacting more quickly to new information and potentially offering a more accurate short-term forecast. It’s a fascinating comparison to see how collective intelligence stacks up against expert analysis when predicting the direction of crude oil prices.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will go up or down. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'up' and 'down' contracts reflects the level of uncertainty and disagreement among traders regarding the future price of crude oil.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 2:30 AM and 2:45 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 2:45 AM ET than at 2:30 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will be considered correct.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in major oil-producing regions, could cause a rapid price shift. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, will also be closely watched. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases, or even weather events impacting oil infrastructure, could all contribute to volatility in this market. Any news that alters the perceived supply or demand balance for crude oil is likely to move the odds.