TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.1b

24H VOL:

$118,207,155

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,797,847,289

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,741,482,519

507,381

Markets across

37,614

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,852

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$4

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 2:30 AM EST

predict

Predict

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T06:15:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T06:15:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current odds of the price going up or down, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You'll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $4, and the total volume traded to date, which is $4. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and see how much activity there is surrounding this particular event. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of price movement.

Currently, analysts are divided on the future direction of crude oil prices, with some predicting a rise due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, while others foresee a decline based on concerns about global economic slowdown and increased production. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a probability-based forecast. It's important to note that prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to bet on, and can therefore differ from traditional analyst opinions, potentially offering a more accurate short-term outlook.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective opinion of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability of the outcome as perceived by the traders on Predict, and provides a dynamic assessment of potential price movements.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts as reported by a major financial exchange during the specified 2:15AM-2:30AM ET timeframe on October 16th. The market will determine whether the price at that time is higher or lower than the price at the market's open, and the outcome will be based on that comparison.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions to oil supply in major producing regions, could drive prices higher. Conversely, signs of a weakening global economy, particularly in major oil-consuming countries, could lead to a price decline. Major announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or significant shifts in inventory data reported by the Energy Information Administration, will also likely influence trading activity in this market. Keep an eye on these developments for potential price movements.