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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$22

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 1:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T05:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T05:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with the price history showing how they've changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $22, and the total volume traded to date, which is $22. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding this specific event.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for crude oil price movements vary considerably. Some predict a slight increase due to geopolitical tensions, while others anticipate a decline based on global economic slowdowns. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a probability-based forecast. While analyst opinions are valuable, this market provides a real-time, incentivized view of what traders believe is most likely to happen, potentially offering a more accurate signal than individual predictions.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the odds closely align with the perceived probability of each outcome, creating a transparent and efficient forecasting tool.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil between 1:30 AM and 1:45 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 1:45 AM ET than at 1:30 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct. Conversely, if the price is lower, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected announcements from OPEC regarding production cuts or increases would likely cause substantial movement. Geopolitical events, such as escalating tensions in major oil-producing regions, could also drive prices higher. Conversely, signs of a weakening global economy, particularly in China, or increased US oil production could push prices down. Major economic data releases, like inflation figures or GDP growth reports, will also be closely watched and could impact trading activity in this market.