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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12AM-12:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil prices go up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12AM-12:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12AM-12:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 12:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12AM-12:15AM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T04:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T04:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down during the specified timeframe. You’ll find a visual representation of these odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and activity.

Currently, it’s important to note that prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and fundamental data, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and potentially reacting more quickly to new information. It is common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes anticipate events before they are reflected in formal analyst reports. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into overall market expectations.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current spread between the 'buy' and 'sell' prices indicates the market's uncertainty and the cost of trading in this market. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of crude oil during the 12AM-12:15AM ET timeframe on October 16th. The direction of the price change – whether it goes up or down – will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Predict following the resolution date.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions or changes in international relations, are major catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also drive price movements. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels or shifts in energy policy could create volatility. Even unexpected weather patterns impacting oil infrastructure could have an effect on the crude oil price market.