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492,440

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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 12:45 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

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Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T04:30:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T04:30:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities for the price of crude oil to move up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a snapshot of market activity and how traders are positioning themselves.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially when unexpected events occur or when there’s significant uncertainty surrounding future oil prices. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 12:30 AM and 12:45 AM ET on October 16th. If the price is higher at 12:45 AM ET than at 12:30 AM ET, the 'Crude Oil Up' outcome will be considered correct; otherwise, the 'Crude Oil Down' outcome will prevail.

Several factors could significantly move this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in major oil-producing regions, are primary catalysts. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand (like manufacturing indices or Chinese economic growth figures), will also influence prices. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production levels, or even unforeseen weather events impacting oil infrastructure, could lead to substantial shifts in trader sentiment and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.