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Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 10AM-10:15AM ET
predict

Will crude oil be up or down?

Volume:
$0

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 10AM-10:15AM ET

 - Predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 10AM-10:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 10:15 AM EST

predict

Predict

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predict

Crude Oil Up or Down - October 16, 10AM-10:15AM ET

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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T14:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the CL/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the CL/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/cl-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink CL/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-16T14:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the crude oil price market tracks the current implied probabilities of the price of crude oil going up or down. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how sentiment has shifted over time. It also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $0. This provides a comprehensive overview of how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of crude oil prices.

Currently, analysts are split on the direction of crude oil prices, with some predicting a continued rise due to supply constraints and others forecasting a decline based on concerns about global economic slowdown. This market offers a different perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd. If the prediction market odds significantly diverge from the consensus of expert analysts, it could signal that traders have access to information or insights not yet reflected in traditional forecasts. It’s a valuable data point to consider alongside conventional analysis.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether the crude oil price will be higher or lower at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective sentiment of participants. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the probability that traders assign to each outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood of that outcome occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing market conditions.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the change in the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM Eastern Time on October 16. A price increase will result in a payout for those who predicted ‘Crude Oil Up’, while a price decrease will favor those who predicted ‘Crude Oil Down’. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 16, 2026. Unexpected geopolitical events, such as disruptions in oil-producing regions, could cause a sudden price spike. Economic data releases, particularly those related to global demand or inventory levels, could also shift sentiment. Furthermore, announcements from OPEC+ regarding production cuts or increases will likely have a substantial impact. Any major news affecting supply, demand, or broader economic conditions could lead to significant movement in this market as traders react to the new information.