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419,492

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4,654

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5

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Core CPI YoY - September 2026
polymarket

What will Core CPI YoY be?

Volume:
$60,459

2.6%

 - Polymarket

2.6% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 10:33 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

2.6%

View
100%
90%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,589
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2.4%

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.3%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,775
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.5%

View
0%
33%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,127
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤2.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,752
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,133
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≥2.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.1%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,673
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Core CPI inflation market tracks the current implied probabilities for various outcomes of the Core CPI YoY rate in September 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the price history showing how the market has priced in information over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $12,011, and the total market volume, which is $60,430. This provides a quick overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding future inflation expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While economists and financial institutions release their predictions for the Core CPI, this market allows traders to express their own beliefs and incorporate a wider range of information, including real-time economic data and geopolitical events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or simply a different assessment of the likelihood of various economic scenarios. It’s valuable to consider both sources when forming your own outlook.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future Core CPI YoY rate. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome being correct, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on new information and trader sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of expectations. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence and liquidity in the market.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Core CPI YoY figure for September 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the data released by the relevant statistical agency responsible for calculating and publishing the Core CPI. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their prediction aligned with the reported value. It’s important to note that the precise methodology for calculating the Core CPI is determined by the issuing agency, not Polymarket.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and its resolution. Key economic indicators like employment reports, wage growth data, and producer price index (PPI) figures will all be closely watched. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, such as interest rate changes or quantitative easing programs, could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, and even major weather events impacting agricultural prices could all contribute to changes in inflation expectations and, consequently, the price action in this market.