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Core CPI MoM - September 2026
polymarket

What will Core CPI MoM be in September 2026?

Volume:
$93,880

0.3%

 - Polymarket

0.3% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 10:33 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.2%

View
0%
51%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,147
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.1%

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤0.0%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,646
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.4%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,875
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.6%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Core CPI market tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes, along with a price history showing how expectations have shifted over time. You’ll also find the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $31,375, and the total volume traded to date, which is $93,880. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding future inflation readings. Traders use this information to assess the likelihood of different CPI scenarios and adjust their positions accordingly.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While economists polled by major financial news outlets generally anticipate a specific range for the Core CPI, this market allows traders to express their own beliefs, potentially incorporating information not fully captured in standard models. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of economic data, geopolitical events, or simply a contrarian view on prevailing market expectations. It's a valuable comparison point for understanding the collective wisdom of the crowd versus expert opinion.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the future Core CPI value. The price of a share reflects the probability of the outcome it represents. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the market. Higher demand for shares indicating a specific CPI outcome will drive up their price, while increased selling pressure will lower it. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official Core CPI MoM figure for September 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and will reflect the percentage change in the Core CPI from the previous month. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the official BLS data, demonstrating the market’s ability to forecast economic indicators.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in employment data, particularly wage growth, often influence inflation expectations. Geopolitical events, such as supply chain disruptions or major policy changes, could also introduce volatility. Furthermore, statements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, including potential interest rate adjustments, will be closely watched by traders. Any data suggesting a stronger or weaker economic outlook than currently anticipated has the potential to move this market substantially.