Consecutive days of average temperature in San Antonio above 90°F - week of Aug 24, 2026

On Kalshi, the current odds reflect trader sentiment about the likelihood of prolonged heat in San Antonio. These odds can diverge from analyst forecasts, which may incorporate additional climate models or regional data. Analysts often publish their expectations months in advance, while this market updates in real time as new weather patterns emerge. Comparing both sources offers a blended perspective on potential temperature trends.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, pricing follows a dynamic model where traders buy or sell contracts based on their expectations for consecutive days above 90°F. The top outcome’s probability is displayed as a percentage, adjusting continuously with trading volume and new information. This price reflects the collective guess of participants, balancing bullish and bearish positions until resolution.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official temperature data for the specified week is publicly available. Meteorological agencies publish averaged daily temperatures, which are used to verify whether the threshold is met. The process relies on widely accepted, authoritative climate reports to close the market definitively.

Key signals include seasonal weather pattern updates, such as El Niño or La Niña developments, which can influence Texas heat spells. Government heat advisories, extended forecasts from major weather services, and sudden climate shifts may also affect trader sentiment. As these signals emerge, this market’s odds will likely fluctuate, responding to new probabilities for prolonged high temperatures.