TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Claude Mythos released on…?
polymarket

Claude Mythos released on…?

Volume:
$146,984

On or prior to June 9

 - Polymarket

On or prior to June 9 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 9, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

On or prior to June 9

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.3¢
N/A
$73,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,415
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Not released by June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 21

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,741
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 28

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,864
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 14

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,665
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 22

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,632
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,142
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 18

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$946
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$902
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 26

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$899
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 29

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$822
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$721
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 23

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$702
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 27

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$669
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 25

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 24

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$612
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 17

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 23

Description

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic makes "Claude Mythos" available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes “Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X) or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify towards this market’s resolution. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless named Mythos or officially identified by Anthropic as a “Mythos-class” model. The qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The Claude Mythos released on…? dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for this event. You can monitor the current implied probability of each outcome, view 24-hour trading volume of $141,984, and observe how market sentiment has evolved since the event was listed. The dashboard displays the top outcome and its corresponding chance percentage, allowing traders to quickly assess consensus expectations around when Claude Mythos will be released. Historical charts help you identify trends and volatility patterns as the Jun 30, 2026 resolution date approaches.

Claude Mythos released on… is priced on Polymarket through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different release-date outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract trades independently, and the price of a share reflects the market's collective belief in that outcome's probability. As new information about Claude Mythos emerges—whether from Anthropic announcements, development updates, or community signals—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The current price of the top outcome reflects the cumulative conviction of all active traders on the platform.

The Claude Mythos released on… market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution will be determined by verifiable evidence of when Claude Mythos is officially released to the public. The exact criteria—whether release means general availability, beta launch, or announcement—are specified in the market's terms. Once the resolution date arrives or the triggering event occurs, the market will settle based on the outcome that matches the actual release timing. Traders should review the full market rules to understand which date range or announcement qualifies for each outcome.

Several catalysts could shift Claude Mythos released on… odds significantly. Official announcements from Anthropic regarding release schedules, beta testing phases, or product delays would trigger immediate repricing. Technical breakthroughs or setbacks in model development could accelerate or postpone timelines. Competitive product launches from other AI labs might pressure Anthropic to move faster or slower. Regulatory developments affecting AI deployment could impact release plans. Media coverage, job postings, or infrastructure investments by Anthropic may signal imminent launches. Community leaks or insider information could also move prices. Each of these signals would likely be reflected quickly in Polymarket pricing as traders reassess their probability estimates.