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ChatGPT Outage by...?
polymarket

Will ChatGPT have an outage by November 16, 2026?

Volume:
$2,739

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 6:36 AM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

November 15

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,271
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 8h
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the ChatGPT outage market tracks the current odds of an outage occurring by a specific date. You'll find the implied probability of the 'yes' outcome, represented as a percentage, along with the total volume traded in USD. The 24-hour volume is also displayed, showing how much trading activity has occurred recently. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and track how predictions are evolving over time. Currently, the volume is $2,739 with $2,158 traded in the last 24 hours.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a very high probability of a ChatGPT outage occurring by the resolution date. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which, while acknowledging potential risks, generally assign a lower probability to a complete outage within the same timeframe. It's important to note that analyst predictions are often based on qualitative assessments and may not fully capture the dynamic factors influencing the likelihood of such an event. This market provides a quantitative, real-time assessment based on the collective wisdom of traders.

This market resolves around Nov 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a significant, prolonged outage of ChatGPT occurred before the resolution date. An outage would need to be widely reported and independently verified to be considered a 'yes' outcome. The specifics of what constitutes a 'significant, prolonged outage' are defined by the market’s rules on Polymarket.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major security breaches affecting OpenAI, reports of infrastructure failures, or significant scaling challenges with ChatGPT could all drive the price higher. Conversely, successful upgrades to OpenAI's infrastructure, announcements of robust disaster recovery plans, or a prolonged period of stable operation could lower the price. Any official statements from OpenAI regarding the stability and security of ChatGPT will also be closely watched by traders in this market.