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ChatGPT Outage by...?
polymarket

Will ChatGPT experience an outage by 2026-11-01?

Volume:
$1,862

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 4:04 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 15

View
100%
61%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$691
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the ChatGPT outage market tracks the current odds of an outage occurring by a specific date, along with the 24-hour trading volume. You can also view the price history of the market, allowing you to see how predictions have shifted over time. Currently, the volume is $1,041 and the total volume traded to date is $1,760. This provides a real-time view of what traders believe about the likelihood of a significant disruption to ChatGPT services.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts regarding potential ChatGPT outages. However, prediction markets often aggregate a diverse range of information and viewpoints, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional analyst reports. If analysts are predicting a low probability of a major outage, we might see lower prices in this market, and vice versa. Discrepancies could arise from differing assumptions about the underlying technology, security vulnerabilities, or the potential for unforeseen events impacting service availability.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether a ChatGPT outage will occur by the resolution date. The price of a share reflects the probability of the event happening, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand; increased buying pressure drives the price up, indicating a higher perceived probability, while increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated assessment of the outage risk.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on whether a significant, widely reported outage of ChatGPT services occurred before the resolution date. An outage would need to be substantial enough to be documented by reliable news sources and generally acknowledged as a disruption to the platform's functionality. The specifics of what constitutes a “significant” outage are determined by the platform’s standard practices for similar markets.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. News reports of security vulnerabilities within OpenAI’s infrastructure, major updates to ChatGPT’s code base that introduce potential instability, or even increased reports of minor service disruptions could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected spikes in ChatGPT’s usage, potentially straining its servers, could also raise concerns about outages. Conversely, announcements of successful infrastructure upgrades or enhanced security measures might lower the perceived risk and decrease prices in this market.