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ChatGPT Outage by...?
polymarket

Will ChatGPT experience an outage by November 1, 2026?

Volume:
$2,422

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 8, 12:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 15

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the ChatGPT outage market displays the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing the likelihood of a significant outage impacting the service. The current volume is $794, and the total volume traded to date is $2,422. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding potential disruptions to ChatGPT's availability. The dashboard updates continuously, reflecting the latest trading activity and shifts in expectations.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and specific analyst forecasts regarding potential ChatGPT outages. Traditional analyst predictions often rely on qualitative assessments and historical data, while this market aggregates the informed opinions of a diverse group of traders. The collective wisdom of the crowd, as expressed through the odds on Polymarket, may offer a different perspective than individual expert opinions. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect probabilities of events occurring, not necessarily the severity or duration of an outage if one happens.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the likelihood of a ChatGPT outage. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined by the forces of supply and demand; if more traders believe an outage is likely, the price of shares will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations accordingly.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a significant, widely reported outage of ChatGPT occurs before the resolution date. The specifics of what constitutes a 'significant outage' are defined within the market's rules on Polymarket. Traders should review those rules for complete details, but generally, it will involve a substantial disruption to service impacting a large number of users. The outcome will be a simple binary determination: outage occurred or outage did not occur.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding vulnerabilities in OpenAI's infrastructure, reports of increased system stress, or announcements of planned maintenance could all move the odds. Unexpected surges in ChatGPT usage, particularly if they lead to performance issues, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, major cybersecurity incidents affecting OpenAI or its cloud providers would likely cause a substantial shift in expectations. Finally, any official statements from OpenAI regarding system stability or potential risks could also impact this market.