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Central Bank of Colombia decision in October
polymarket

What will the Colombian central bank decide?

Volume:
$72,628

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 4:31 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$39,698
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25 bps increase

View
0%
63%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps increase

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,957
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps decrease

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,817
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Colombian central bank decision tracks the probabilities of different outcomes as expressed by traders. You'll find a dynamic price representing the implied probability of a specific decision being made, along with a history of how those odds have shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,338, and the total volume traded to date, which is $72,628. This allows you to see how much activity there is surrounding this market and how sentiment is changing.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different view than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Colombian central bank decision. While some analysts predict a hold on interest rates, this market suggests a higher probability of a rate cut. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are based on economic models and expert opinion, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies between the two can highlight differing perspectives on the economic outlook and potential policy responses.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment. The current price indicates what percentage of traders believe a particular decision will be made by the central bank.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Colombian central bank's official decision is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the central bank’s publicly announced policy regarding interest rates and any accompanying statements. The outcome will be determined by the actual decision made by the bank, as reported by official sources, and will be reflected in the final settlement of shares on Polymarket. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predicted outcome matched the actual result.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from Colombia, such as inflation figures or GDP growth rates, could shift trader sentiment. Any statements made by members of the Colombian central bank regarding future monetary policy would also be closely watched. Global economic events, like changes in US interest rates or major geopolitical developments, could also indirectly influence the market, as they impact Colombia's economic outlook. Furthermore, shifts in market risk appetite could lead to broader buying or selling pressure on this market.