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Central Bank of Chile decision in October
polymarket

What will the Chile rate decision be?

Volume:
$16,438

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 27, 2026

Closed: Oct 27, 7:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,887
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25 bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$473
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$333
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Chile (Banco Central de Chile), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Chile, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 27, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Chile calendar (https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financiera). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Chile resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Chile (Banco Central de Chile), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Chile, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 27, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Chile calendar (https://www.bcentral.cl/es/web/banco-central/noticias-y-publicaciones/prensa/calendario-de-politica-monetaria-y-financiera). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Chile resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Chilean interest rate decision tracks the probabilities of different outcomes as expressed by traders. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,288. The total volume traded on this market is $16,438. This allows you to see how the market is interpreting the likely path of monetary policy in Chile and how quickly opinions are shifting.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Chilean interest rate decision. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for the rate, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders, representing a probability distribution of possible outcomes. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates factors not fully captured in conventional analyses, such as geopolitical risks or unexpected economic data releases. It’s a valuable tool for assessing the range of potential scenarios.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Chilean interest rate decision. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adapt to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official announcement made by the Central Bank of Chile regarding its monetary policy decision. The specific interest rate announced will determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the actual result of the decision.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market leading up to Oct 27, 2026. Key economic data releases from Chile, such as inflation figures, GDP growth, and unemployment rates, will likely influence trader sentiment. Unexpected statements from members of the Central Bank of Chile’s governing board could also cause shifts in the odds. Furthermore, global economic developments and changes in risk appetite could indirectly impact expectations for Chilean monetary policy. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price movements.