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420,368

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Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)
polymarket

What will Canada's GDP be in August 2026?

Volume:
$45,018

0.0 to 0.1%

 - Polymarket

0.0 to 0.1% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 10:31 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.0 to 0.1%

View
100%
64%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$18,359
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.2 to 0.3%

View
0%
61%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.4 to 0.5%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<-0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.6%+

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,547
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

-0.2 to -0.1%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending August 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for August 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending August 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for August 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the prediction market suggests a range of expectations for Canada’s GDP growth in August 2026. These expectations, as reflected by the probabilities on Polymarket, can be compared to forecasts from economic analysts and polls of expert opinions. If analysts broadly predict a specific growth range, this market will show whether traders agree or disagree with that consensus. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and expert forecasts may indicate areas where the market believes additional information or factors are at play. It’s important to note that this market represents a collective forecast based on traders’ willingness to buy or sell.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the future GDP growth rate. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market’s liquidity, indicated by the 24-hour volume, also influences price discovery. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as successful forecasts result in profitable trades.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official GDP growth rate for Canada in August 2026 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official data released by Statistics Canada, which is the standard source for this economic indicator. The specific growth rate will determine which outcome in this market is considered correct, and payouts will be distributed accordingly to those who held winning contracts. Traders should monitor official releases from Statistics Canada as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals and events could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major economic data releases related to Canada’s economy, such as employment figures, inflation rates, and retail sales, could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events, changes in global trade patterns, or shifts in Canadian government policy could also impact expectations for GDP growth. Furthermore, revisions to previous GDP figures or changes in analyst forecasts could prompt traders to reassess their positions. Any news that alters the perceived trajectory of the Canadian economy has the potential to move this market.