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$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Cambria FDV above ___ one day after launch?
polymarket
predict

Cambria FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Volume:
$590,297

$20M

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 6:54 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

$20M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$91,583
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
predict

$20M

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3,192
$86,844
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
predict

$40M

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$16,194
$80,628
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
polymarket

$40M

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
predict

$100M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$7,307
$72,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
polymarket

$100M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,380
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
predict

$30M

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$4,231
$64,959
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
polymarket

$30M

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,250
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
predict

$50M

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$10,029
$40,434
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
polymarket

$50M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,519
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
predict

$70M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$11,341
$26,687
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
polymarket

$70M

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,946
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
polymarket

$200M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
predict

$200M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$12,783
$1,802
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
polymarket

$150M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,455
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
predict

$150M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$8,675
$2,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
1y 1mo 4w
No
Total markets: 16

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical FDV calculation methodology, timing definition, launch criteria, and deadline, with no material divergence in resolution logic.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Cambria token launch

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch
  • FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price from the most liquid available price source
  • Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch (not the launch day itself)
  • Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold; No if FDV is equal to or below the threshold
  • If Cambria does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Launch by Deadline: If Cambria fails to launch a publicly tradable token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all FDV threshold markets resolve to No regardless of threshold level
  • Launch Day Definition: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, not on launch day itself. For example, if launch occurs on March 15, resolution is March 16 at 4:00 PM ET
  • Most Liquid Price Source: If multiple exchanges or venues trade the token, the price from the most liquid source (typically highest volume) is used for FDV calculation. Resolvers must identify and confirm the most liquid venue at resolution time
  • Threshold Boundary: Markets resolve Yes only if FDV is strictly greater than the specified threshold. FDV equal to the threshold resolves to No
  • Token Supply Verification: Total token supply must be confirmed from official Cambria sources or blockchain verification. Any discrepancy in supply data should be resolved using the most authoritative on-chain record
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Cambria's token launch. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to NoOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd assessment of future probabilities, potentially incorporating information not immediately apparent in spot prices. The current price action suggests traders believe there is a high likelihood Cambria's FDV will surpass the specified level shortly after launch. This differs from simply observing the initial trading price of Cambria, as this market aggregates diverse perspectives and forecasts. Analyzing the difference between these probabilities and traditional financial metrics can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and potential future price movements.

Prices for this market can diverge between Polymarket and Predict due to variations in trader demographics, liquidity, and differing market-specific rules. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with varying risk appetites and information sets, leading to potentially different interpretations of the same event. Furthermore, trading volume and the availability of capital can influence price discovery on each venue. While both platforms ultimately aim to reflect the true probability of the outcome, these factors contribute to temporary discrepancies in pricing.