TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Cambria FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Cambria token launchCore resolution logic:
- Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch
- FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price from the most liquid available price source
- Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch (not the launch day itself)
- Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold; No if FDV is equal to or below the threshold
- If Cambria does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in this group resolve to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- No Launch by Deadline: If Cambria fails to launch a publicly tradable token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all FDV threshold markets resolve to No regardless of threshold level
- Launch Day Definition: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch, not on launch day itself. For example, if launch occurs on March 15, resolution is March 16 at 4:00 PM ET
- Most Liquid Price Source: If multiple exchanges or venues trade the token, the price from the most liquid source (typically highest volume) is used for FDV calculation. Resolvers must identify and confirm the most liquid venue at resolution time
- Threshold Boundary: Markets resolve Yes only if FDV is strictly greater than the specified threshold. FDV equal to the threshold resolves to No
- Token Supply Verification: Total token supply must be confirmed from official Cambria sources or blockchain verification. Any discrepancy in supply data should be resolved using the most authoritative on-chain record
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following Cambria's token launch. If no launch occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to NoFollow the signals, not the noise
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