TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
kalshi

BTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

Volume:
$4,115,528

$81,000 or above

 - Kalshi

$81,000 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$81,000 or above

View
100%
44%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$742,272
N/A
N/A
$257,005
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$80,500 or above

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$223,727
N/A
N/A
$79,197
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$80,000 or above

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$170,976
N/A
N/A
$48,844
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$77,000 or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$141,189
N/A
N/A
$79,715
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$79,500 or above

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$112,993
N/A
N/A
$44,517
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$78,000 or above

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$112,482
N/A
N/A
$28,095
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$79,000 or above

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$91,766
N/A
N/A
$55,014
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$77,500 or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,052
N/A
N/A
$14,142
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$76,500 or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,073
N/A
N/A
$20,327
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$78,500 or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,806
N/A
N/A
$13,567
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$75,500 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,960
N/A
N/A
$7,769
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$76,000 or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,688
N/A
N/A
$4,858
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$74,500 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,553
N/A
N/A
$3,171
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$75,000 or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,122
N/A
N/A
$4,034
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$73,500 or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$771
N/A
N/A
$555
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$74,000 or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$476
N/A
N/A
$452
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72,000 or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$313
N/A
N/A
$283
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$72,500 or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$73,000 or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$224
N/A
N/A
$213
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$70,000 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$69,500 or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$71,500 or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$81,500 or above

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$805,457
N/A
N/A
$283,888
Settled
No
kalshi

$82,000 or above

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$476,730
N/A
N/A
$175,214
Settled
No
kalshi

$82,500 or above

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$255,209
N/A
N/A
$76,246
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 50

Intro

This market tracks whether the simple average of sixty seconds of the CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) will be above 69499.99 at 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. The resolution source for this market is CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI). Traders should closely watch the price of Bitcoin leading up to October 23, 2026, as the market will resolve based on the BRTI average at 5 PM EDT on that date.

Kalshi

All markets share a common resolution methodology centered on the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) published by CF Benchmarks. For each market, the outcome depends on whether the simple average of the sixty seconds of BRTI price data immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on October 23, 2026, exceeds a specified threshold. The exact threshold varies per market, incrementing in $500 or $1,000 steps from $69,500 up to $94,000. At the minute before expiration, exactly sixty price readings are collected from the BRTI. The official closing price is the arithmetic mean of these sixty values. If this average exceeds the market's defined threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets use identical data collection and calculation procedures, differing only in their respective price thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional spot price expectations for Bitcoin. While analysts and polls often rely on historical data and technical indicators, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. This can lead to a more nuanced and potentially accurate forecast, as it incorporates a wider range of factors and incentivizes informed predictions. It’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking and represent probabilities, not definitive price targets.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different Bitcoin price outcomes. The prices of these contracts dynamically adjust based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving beliefs of market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards a consensus view of the most likely Bitcoin price on October 23, 2026. The current volume of $4,115,528 indicates active trading and a degree of confidence in the market’s price discovery process.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bitcoin price at 5:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted financial data source. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual Bitcoin price at that specific time. The market’s outcome is determined by objective data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market between now and its resolution. Major regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency, particularly in the United States or other key economies, could have a substantial impact. Unexpected macroeconomic events, such as shifts in interest rate policies or significant inflation changes, could also influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin. Finally, technological developments, like breakthroughs in blockchain scalability or security, or conversely, major security breaches, could all contribute to price fluctuations and shift the odds in this market.