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British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on November 2?
polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on November 2?

Volume:
$5

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on November 2?

 - Polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on November 2? - Polymarket

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Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 10:10 PM EST

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British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on November 2?

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100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the GBP/USD exchange rate being higher on November 2nd than it is today. You’ll find a visualization of the odds, along with a price history chart showing how the market has priced in different possibilities over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $5, and the total volume traded to date, which is $5. This provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of the exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market participants believe there is about a 50% chance the GBP/USD exchange rate will be up on November 2nd. This compares to a wide range of forecasts from financial analysts, many of whom are predicting continued volatility in the currency pair. While some analysts anticipate a strengthening pound due to potential interest rate hikes, others foresee further depreciation based on broader economic concerns. It’s important to note that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than individual expert opinions on this market.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the GBP/USD exchange rate will be up or down on November 2nd. The price of these shares reflects the current probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people buy shares betting on an increase, the price rises, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of market expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing price of the GBP/USD exchange rate on November 2nd, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will pay out to those who correctly predicted the direction of the exchange rate, based on whether the closing price is higher or lower than the current price at the time of the market’s creation.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Major releases of UK and US economic data, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, are likely to influence the GBP/USD exchange rate. Unexpected policy announcements from the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical developments, including shifts in global trade tensions or unexpected political events, could further contribute to volatility in this market.