British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on August 31? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on August 31?
Start: 2026-08-28T12:01:04.000Z
End: 2026-08-31T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on August 31, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 31, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 31, 2026, or if August 31, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on August 31, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 31, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 31, 2026, or if August 31, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market’s odds capture a decentralized view of expected GBP/USD direction. While analysts may weigh macro data, central bank policies, and trade balances, traders adjust positions minute by minute, often reacting faster to news or sentiment shifts. The resulting probability can diverge noticeably from institutional consensus, offering an alternative perspective on market direction.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the result automatically applied after verification, settling all positions based on the final, objective determination of GBP/USD performance for that specific date.

Key signals include major announcements from the Bank of England or Federal Reserve, shifts in global risk sentiment, commodity price swings, or unexpected economic data releases from the UK or US. Each development can rapidly alter expectations for GBP/USD, driving rapid re-pricing in this market as traders reassess directional risks.

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on August 31?

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