TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of BNB on a specific date and time, dividing possible outcomes into narrow, consecutive price ranges. Each range represents a potential market resolution based on where the price falls at the exact moment of evaluation.
The event resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific price range, and the market whose range contains this average price resolves to 'Yes.' Price data is sourced exclusively from CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the official value determined by averaging 60 RTI prices collected in the final minute before expiration. All markets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, ensuring exactly one resolves to 'Yes' regardless of the final price.
Prediction market odds represent a forward-looking assessment of BNB’s price, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. These expectations can differ from current spot prices, as they incorporate anticipated news, events, and market trends between now and October 9, 2026. If many traders believe BNB will increase in value, the odds for higher price ranges will rise, and vice versa. Comparing these probabilities to those derived from traditional financial analysis or expert forecasts can offer a unique perspective on potential price movements. This market provides a distinct signal based on incentivized predictions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different BNB price ranges. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, ultimately reflecting the market's consensus expectation for the future price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, offering a dynamic and real-time forecast. The current prices indicate the probability that BNB will fall within each specified range at the designated time.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT. The outcome will be determined by the price of BNB at that specific time, verified against credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100% probability for the price range that contains the actual BNB price at resolution, and 0% for all other ranges. Traders who correctly predicted the price range will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. This ensures a clear and objective resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution on Oct 9, 2026. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as regulatory changes, technological advancements, or shifts in investor sentiment, could impact BNB’s price. News regarding Binance, the exchange associated with BNB, including security breaches, partnerships, or legal challenges, would also be a key driver. Macroeconomic events, like changes in interest rates or global economic conditions, could indirectly affect the demand for cryptocurrencies and, consequently, BNB. Unexpected news related to the utility of BNB within the Binance ecosystem could also move this market.