TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 03d:20h:26m
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The market tracks the price of BNB cryptocurrency at a specific moment, determining the outcome based on where it falls within predefined ranges. Participants assess BNB's value just before a set time to see which range it occupies, with each range corresponding to a distinct resolution.
The market resolves based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EST on Nov 6, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price range, from $579.99 or below up to $820 or above. CF Benchmarks collects 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices during the final minute before expiration, and the average of these prices determines the official value. While external sources like Google or Coinbase may offer reference points, only the CF Benchmarks RTI average is used for resolution. The market is divided into 50 distinct ranges, each spanning $5 increments (except the first and last ranges), ensuring a clear resolution path for any possible price outcome at the specified time.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the BNB price on November 6, 2026. These odds represent what traders believe the probability is of BNB trading within specific price ranges at 5pm EST. Comparing this to spot price expectations from analysts or polls reveals how the wisdom of the crowd differs from expert opinions. If analysts predict a significant price increase, but this market assigns a lower probability to higher price ranges, it suggests traders are more skeptical about that outcome. This comparison provides a unique perspective on potential price movements.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different BNB price ranges. The prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand, ultimately determining the implied probability of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as profitable trades depend on correctly predicting the final BNB price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and reflect the collective beliefs of participants regarding the future price of BNB.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of BNB will be determined by the weighted average price on a major cryptocurrency exchange at 5pm EST on November 6, 2026. This price will be compared to the ranges offered in this market to determine which contracts settle as winners. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout based on the market’s pricing at the time of their trade, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before November 6, 2026. Major developments within the Binance ecosystem, such as regulatory changes, technological upgrades to the BNB chain, or significant partnerships, could all shift price expectations. Broader macroeconomic trends, like changes in interest rates or global economic growth, could also impact the cryptocurrency market as a whole. Additionally, unexpected news regarding competing cryptocurrencies or shifts in investor sentiment could cause fluctuations in this market, reflecting the dynamic nature of the crypto landscape.