TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets determines whether the Binance Coin (BNB) cryptocurrency reaches various price thresholds by a specific date and time. Each market corresponds to a different price level, resolving based on the average price of BNB in the final minute before the specified deadline.
All markets resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. For a market to resolve as 'Yes,' this average must exceed the specified threshold (e.g., $614.99, $619.99, etc.). The official price is determined by collecting 60 Real Time Index (RTI) prices during the last minute before expiration and averaging them. Participants should note that cryptocurrency price data can vary across sources, and the CF Benchmarks RTI is the definitive reference for resolution. Each market features a unique price threshold, ranging incrementally from approximately $615 to $860, with consistent methodology applied across all thresholds.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective on the future price of BNB compared to traditional spot price expectations derived from analysts or polls. While spot price expectations often reflect short-term sentiment, this market aggregates the informed opinions of many traders, potentially revealing a more accurate forecast for October 30, 2026. Discrepancies between the two can arise from varying information sets, risk appetites, and analytical approaches. It’s valuable to consider both when forming your own view on BNB’s future value.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether BNB will be above or below a certain price at the specified time. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to rapidly incorporate new information and adjust its forecast accordingly, offering a real-time assessment of BNB’s potential price trajectory.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome determined by a verifiable price of BNB at 5:00 PM EDT on October 30, 2026. The final price will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders holding contracts predicting BNB above a certain price will receive a payout if the actual price exceeds that level, while those betting on a lower price will be rewarded if the actual price falls below their predicted level. The market’s resolution ensures a transparent and objective outcome.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market between now and resolution. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as regulatory changes or shifts in institutional investment, could influence BNB’s price. News regarding Binance, the exchange associated with BNB, including technological upgrades, security breaches, or legal challenges, would also be a key driver. Macroeconomic factors, like changes in interest rates or inflation, and broader adoption of blockchain technology could also move this market. Unexpected events in the global financial landscape could also play a role.