TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 03d:19h:22m
$
This set of markets tracks the price of BNB at a specific future timestamp, resolving based on the average price during the final minute before the deadline. Each market has a different threshold, determining whether the price exceeded that level at the exact moment of evaluation.
All markets resolve based on the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI immediately before 5 PM EST on Nov 6, 2026. If this average exceeds the specified threshold for a given market (e.g., $574.99, $579.99, etc.), that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The official price is determined exclusively by CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index (RTI), with the final value calculated as the average of 60 RTI prices collected in the last minute before expiration. This methodology ensures consistency across all markets, as each threshold applies the same data collection and calculation process to determine the outcome.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the BNB price in late 2026. These odds represent what traders believe is the probability of BNB trading within specific price ranges at the designated time. This differs from simple spot price expectations, which are a snapshot of the current market value. The market aggregates diverse opinions and information, potentially offering a more nuanced view than individual analyst predictions or polls. Examining this market can reveal whether traders anticipate significant price movements or relative stability for BNB over the next few years.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different BNB price ranges. The prices of these contracts determine the implied probability of each outcome. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's depth and liquidity, reflected in the trading volume, influence how efficiently prices incorporate new information. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, technical analysis, and their own expectations for BNB's future performance.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the price of one BNB in US dollars, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted financial data provider at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time on November 6, 2026. The precise price used for settlement will be determined by Kalshi’s standard procedures for verifying market data, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact the BNB price market. Major developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as regulatory changes or the emergence of competing blockchains, could influence BNB's value. News regarding Binance, the exchange associated with BNB, including security breaches, legal challenges, or new product launches, will likely move this market. Macroeconomic conditions, like changes in interest rates or inflation, could also play a role, as could broader adoption of blockchain technology and the overall sentiment towards digital assets. Any significant event affecting the utility or perception of BNB could lead to substantial shifts in trading activity.