TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.8b

24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

Markets across

37,244

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,831

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Science and Technology
Bitcoin price on October 18?
opinion
polymarket

Bitcoin price on October 18?

Total volume:
$109,129
Volume 24h:
$63,699
111%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$28,641N/A

80,000-82,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Closed: Oct 18, 12:15 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

80,000-82,000

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$29,893
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

80,000-82,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

78,000-80,000

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38,933
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

78,000-80,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82,000-84,000

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,679
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

82,000-84,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84,000-86,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,524
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

84,000-86,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76,000-78,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,246
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

76,000-78,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90,000-92,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,303
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

90,000-92,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74,000-76,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

74,000-76,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86,000-88,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

86,000-88,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<74,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$790
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

<74,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88,000-90,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$578
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

88,000-90,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>92,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$246
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

>92,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Description

This group of markets asks forecasters to predict the price of Bitcoin on October 18th, using Binance BTC/USDT as the source of truth. Markets range from predicting if the price will be below a certain threshold to above another, or within specific price bands.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same source (Binance BTC/USDT) and resolution time (12:00 PM ET on October 18th) for determining the Bitcoin price.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution will be based on the 'Close' price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 PM ET on October 18th.
  • If the price falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, the higher range will resolve as true.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to source the data from a reliable archive or alternative exchange with high correlation to Binance, prioritizing data integrity. If no reliable data is available, markets may be cancelled.
Timing: Markets will resolve based on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle 'Close' price at 12:00 PM ET on October 18th.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Close" price of the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title falls within the price range specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on the Bitcoin price on October 18. Currently, the aggregated volume for the October 18 Bitcoin price market is $109,129, with $63,537 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors outcomes below $74,000 with a probability of approximately 98%, while Opinion does not have a clear leading outcome at this time. This allows traders to compare expectations across different platforms and gain a more comprehensive understanding of the potential price movement.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Opinion on this market can arise from several factors. These platforms have distinct user bases, trading mechanisms, and risk appetites, which influence how traders value potential outcomes. Polymarket might attract more sophisticated traders with access to different information, while Opinion could have a broader range of participants. Furthermore, varying liquidity and market-making activity on each platform can also contribute to price discrepancies. These factors combine to create potentially different probabilities for the same event.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major news events related to cryptocurrency regulation, such as approvals of Bitcoin ETFs or restrictive policies from governments, would likely cause price swings. Macroeconomic data releases, like inflation reports or interest rate decisions, could also influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin. Unexpected events, such as hacks of major exchanges or significant technological developments in the blockchain space, could also move the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding the evolving probabilities within this market.