TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Bitcoin price on November 8?
🌟New
opinion
polymarket

Bitcoin price on November 8?

Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 8, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$870
Volume 24h:
$866N/A
Liquidity:
$57,839
182%
Open interest:
$870N/A

76,000-78,000

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 8, 2026

Time left: 05d:16h:03m

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 8?

22%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 25¢ buys you 400 shares | Odds: 22% Total Payout: $400 | Net Profit: $300 Multiplier: 4.00x | ROI: 300% APY not meaningful 5 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

76,000-78,000

Trade
22%
3%
Yes 25¢No 81¢
6¢
$4,511
$9
115%
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

76,000-78,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
22%
Yes 25¢No 81¢
Avg: 6¢Max: 6¢
polymarket

<70,000

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 5.4¢No 97.7¢
3.1¢
$7,538
$861
0%
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

<70,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.9%
Yes 5.4¢No 97.7¢
Avg: 3.1¢Max: 3.1¢
polymarket

70,000-72,000

Trade
5%
Yes 6.5¢No 96.9¢
3.4¢
$9,263
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

70,000-72,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 3.4¢Max: 3.4¢
polymarket

72,000-74,000

Trade
12%
4%
Yes 16¢No 92¢
8¢
$7,006
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

72,000-74,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 8¢Max: 8¢
polymarket

74,000-76,000

Trade
19%
3%
Yes 22¢No 85¢
7¢
$4,659
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

74,000-76,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 7¢Max: 7¢
polymarket

78,000-80,000

Trade
20%
1%
Yes 22¢No 83¢
5¢
$6,408
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

78,000-80,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 5¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

80,000-82,000

Trade
13%
4%
Yes 16¢No 91¢
7¢
$4,599
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

80,000-82,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 7¢Max: 7¢
polymarket

82,000-84,000

Trade
6%
4%
Yes 9¢No 98¢
7¢
$4,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

82,000-84,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 7¢Max: 7¢
polymarket

84,000-86,000

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 4.8¢No 99¢
3.8¢
$1,730
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

84,000-86,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 3.8¢Max: 3.8¢
polymarket

86,000-88,000

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3.3¢No 99¢
2.3¢
$4,551
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

86,000-88,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 2.3¢Max: 2.3¢
polymarket

>88,000

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.5¢No 99¢
1.5¢
$2,827
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
opinion

>88,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 16h 3m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 1.5¢
Total markets: 22

Description

This group of markets asks forecasters to predict the price of Bitcoin on November 8th, 2024. Markets cover a range of price buckets, as well as whether the price will be above or below specific thresholds. All markets rely on the Binance BTC/USDT price.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle 'Close' price at 12:00 ET on November 8th for resolution.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET on November 8th.
  • If the price falls exactly on a boundary between two price ranges, the higher range is selected.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, resolution will likely be delayed until data is available. If data is permanently unavailable, the markets may be cancelled.
Timing: Resolution will occur after 12:00 ET on November 8th, 2024, once the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle 'Close' price is confirmed.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Close" price of the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title falls within the price range specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, offer a unique perspective on future price movements compared to traditional spot price expectations. Spot prices reflect current market value, while this market represents a weighted average of informed predictions about a future date. Discrepancies can arise from differing information sets, risk appetites, and the ability of prediction markets to incorporate a wider range of factors. The current implied probability distribution in this market can be seen as a collective forecast, potentially revealing insights not immediately apparent from spot price analysis.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Opinion on this market can stem from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information, which influences trading behavior. Furthermore, the specific market structures and liquidity levels on each platform can lead to price discrepancies. For example, differing trading fees or the presence of larger traders on one platform versus the other can create arbitrage opportunities and price divergence. These variations are normal and reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets.

This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Bitcoin price on November 8 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely-recognized and trusted source for Bitcoin pricing data. Traders will be able to see the final price and how it aligns with the various outcome ranges offered in this market. The platform will automatically settle all outstanding positions based on the verified price at the time of resolution.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Bitcoin regulation, adoption by institutional investors, or macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rate decisions could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as hacks or security breaches, could also influence the price. Furthermore, technical analysis indicators and on-chain metrics, like transaction volume and active addresses, may prompt traders to adjust their positions. Any significant event impacting the perceived value or risk of Bitcoin could lead to substantial movements in this market.