TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
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Time left: 03d:20h:01m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 6?
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Description
This group forecasts the price of Bitcoin on November 6th, 2024, using Binance BTC/USDT as the source of truth. Markets ask whether the price will fall into specific ranges or exceed certain thresholds. The core question revolves around predicting a single price point at a specific time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms utilize the same source (Binance BTC/USDT) and resolution time (12:00 ET on November 6th) to determine the Bitcoin price, creating consistent market logic.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 ET on November 6th.
- If the price falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, the higher range resolves as true.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to source the data from a reliable, independent archive of Binance historical data. If no reliable data is available, the markets will be cancelled.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Close" price of the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title falls within the price range specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in prices between Polymarket and Opinion on this market can arise from several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and risk tolerance. Trading volume and liquidity also play a role; a market with higher volume on one platform may exhibit more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and available trading instruments on each platform can influence price formation. These factors contribute to the observed price discrepancies, even though both platforms address the same underlying question regarding the Bitcoin price.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of Bitcoin on November 6 will be determined by a widely-recognized and publicly available source for Bitcoin pricing data. The platform will verify this price against these sources to determine the winning outcome in this market. Traders should review the platform's documentation for further details on the verification process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 6, 2026. Major news regarding Bitcoin regulation, adoption by institutional investors, or macroeconomic factors like inflation and interest rate changes could all impact price expectations. Unexpected developments in the broader cryptocurrency market, such as security breaches or technological advancements, could also cause shifts in trading activity. Furthermore, significant movements in competing cryptocurrencies or changes in global economic conditions could influence the price of Bitcoin and, consequently, this market.
