TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
'%3e%3ccircle%20cx='26'%20cy='26'%20r='26'%20fill='%23000'/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23fff'%20d='M27.6629%2037.9855L31.004%2037.6925L32.1989%2051.3689C33.72%2051.027%2035.2073%2050.5486%2036.6425%2049.9395V37.8085H40.7697V47.7178C42.4942%2046.577%2044.0775%2045.236%2045.4865%2043.7226L46.0172%2037.6591L49.5548%2037.9678C51.5707%2034.0725%2052.5697%2029.7306%2052.4591%2025.3456C52.3484%2020.9605%2051.1317%2016.6746%2048.9219%2012.886L48.7903%2014.392L44.6631%2014.0303L45.1937%207.97067C43.8569%206.58147%2042.3706%205.34447%2040.7619%204.28222V14.2406H36.6347V2.06247C34.8743%201.313%2033.0358%200.762345%2031.1533%200.420753L32.3463%2014.0637L29.0052%2014.3566L27.7513%200.0314647C27.3308%200.0118035%2026.9062%200%2026.4817%200C24.8262%204.44017e-06%2023.1745%200.157349%2021.5487%200.469906L23.9072%2013.8985L21.364%2014.3468L19.0253%201.0853C16.8454%201.73668%2014.7611%202.67345%2012.8266%203.87129L15.4601%2013.7019L13.4634%2014.2387L11.0146%205.09226C9.12509%206.49278%207.43337%208.1422%205.98527%209.99577L7.26077%2013.5014L5.80446%2014.0322L4.88665%2011.5097C3.41845%2013.6953%202.29182%2016.092%201.54558%2018.6172L1.95829%2018.4678L7.2647%2033.0387L5.80839%2033.5696L1.06407%2020.5303C-0.0225105%2025.6016%200.430464%2030.8821%202.36486%2035.6941C4.29926%2040.5061%207.62683%2044.6301%2011.9206%2047.5369L9.45605%2038.3355L11.4528%2037.7987L14.4677%2049.0567C16.5333%2050.1354%2018.7355%2050.9291%2021.0142%2051.4161L18.6892%2038.1605L21.2343%2037.7122L23.7283%2051.8683C24.6462%2051.9654%2025.5686%2052.014%2026.4916%2052.0138C27.2954%2052.0138%2028.0933%2051.9764%2028.8795%2051.9037L27.6629%2037.9855Z'%20/%3e%3cpath%20fill='%23000'%20d='M46.0368%2018.1276L50.1542%2018.4875L48.804%2033.9372L44.6768%2033.5774L46.0368%2018.1276ZM36.6484%2018.279H40.7756V33.7858H36.6484V18.279ZM31.0099%2018.1611L32.3601%2033.6109L29.019%2033.9038L27.6668%2018.454L31.0099%2018.1611ZM13.481%2033.7898L9.4698%2018.8099L11.4666%2018.2751L15.4778%2033.2452L13.481%2033.7898ZM21.3817%2033.892L18.6892%2018.6211L21.2343%2018.1729L23.9248%2033.4418L21.3817%2033.892Z'%20/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=avatar}
76,000-78,000
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Opinion
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
Time left: 01d:20h:14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on November 4?
$
Description
This group of markets asks forecasters to predict the price of Bitcoin on November 4th, 2024. Markets cover a range of price buckets, as well as whether the price will be above or below specific thresholds. All markets are ultimately tied to the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closing at noon ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same underlying Binance BTC/USDT price data and resolution time, creating consistent resolution criteria.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDTCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET on November 4th.
- If the price falls exactly on a boundary between two price ranges, the higher range resolves as true.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, the markets will likely be delayed until Binance data is available. If data cannot be recovered, resolution may be subject to platform-specific fallback procedures.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Close" price of the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title falls within the price range specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Opinion may differ due to variations in user base, trading volume, and market-specific rules. Polymarket might attract a different demographic of traders compared to Opinion, leading to differing opinions and risk assessments. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery. A higher volume on one platform might result in more accurate and efficient pricing. Differences in the available market structures and the types of contracts offered can also contribute to price discrepancies within this market.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Bitcoin as recorded on a widely recognized exchange at a specific time on November 4. It’s important to note that the exact price used for resolution will be determined by publicly available data, ensuring transparency and fairness in the outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major news regarding Bitcoin adoption by institutions, regulatory announcements impacting cryptocurrency, or unexpected macroeconomic events could all shift trader sentiment. A significant hack or security breach affecting a major exchange could also drive prices down, while positive developments in layer-2 scaling solutions or the broader DeFi ecosystem could push prices higher. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the fluctuations in this market leading up to Nov 4, 2026.
