TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
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Closed: Nov 2, 12:12 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group of markets asks about the price of Bitcoin on November 2nd, 2023. Markets cover a range of price points, from below $72,000 to above $90,000, allowing for granular predictions on the cryptocurrency's value at a specific point in time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Opinion markets utilize the same Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle 'Close' price at 12:00 ET on November 2nd as the resolution source and define resolution in terms of price ranges.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is based on the 'Close' price of the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle at 12:00 ET on November 2nd.
- Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the price falls within the specified range, and 'No' otherwise.
- If the price exactly matches a range boundary, the higher range is considered to have occurred.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Binance Downtime: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, the markets will likely be delayed until Binance data is available. If data is permanently unavailable, the markets may be cancelled.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final "Close" price of the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title falls within the price range specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Opinion for the Bitcoin price market can diverge due to differing user bases, trading incentives, and market-specific rules. Polymarket may attract a different type of trader than Opinion, leading to variations in how they interpret available information and assess risk. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery, causing discrepancies even when considering the same underlying event. These factors contribute to the dynamic pricing observed across both platforms for this market, reflecting a range of perspectives on the future Bitcoin price.
Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as inflation data or interest rate decisions, often influence Bitcoin’s price. Regulatory developments, including potential approvals of Bitcoin ETFs or changes in cryptocurrency regulations, could also cause substantial shifts. Unexpected news regarding Bitcoin adoption by institutions or large corporations, or significant technological advancements within the Bitcoin network, could also move the market. Geopolitical events and broader market sentiment can also play a role, creating volatility and influencing trader behavior in this market.
