TOTAL VOLUME:

$122b

24H VOL:

$157,460,412

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,477,274,218

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,305,318,689

339,364

Markets across

32,344

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,048

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Bitcoin price on July 9?
polymarket
kalshi

Bitcoin price on July 9?

Volume:
$318,344

$63,250 to 63,499.99

 - Kalshi

$63,250 to 63,499.99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$63,250 to 63,499.99

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$45,634
N/A
N/A
$19,279
Settled
Yes
polymarket

62,000-64,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

64,000-66,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,988
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$63,000 to 63,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,355
N/A
N/A
$12,777
Settled
No
polymarket

58,000-60,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,743
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

56,000-58,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$62,750 to 62,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,606
N/A
N/A
$7,061
Settled
No
polymarket

60,000-62,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,289
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$62,500 to 62,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,045
N/A
N/A
$11,987
Settled
No
kalshi

$62,000 to 62,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,496
N/A
N/A
$6,428
Settled
No
polymarket

<52,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,257
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$51,749.99 or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$94
N/A
N/A
$94
Settled
No
polymarket

66,000-68,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,012
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$64,000 to 64,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,708
N/A
N/A
$5,708
Settled
No
kalshi

$62,250 to 62,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,891
N/A
N/A
$4,095
Settled
No
polymarket

54,000-56,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,363
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$61,750 to 61,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,300
N/A
N/A
$3,074
Settled
No
kalshi

$63,500 to 63,749.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,230
N/A
N/A
$2,491
Settled
No
kalshi

$63,750 to 63,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,902
N/A
N/A
$2,867
Settled
No
polymarket

68,000-70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,327
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>70,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,811
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$71,250 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

$67,000 to 67,249.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$444
Settled
No
kalshi

$64,250 to 64,499.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$645
N/A
N/A
$645
Settled
No
kalshi

$60,750 to 60,999.99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$603
N/A
N/A
$601
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 91

Description

This event group measures Bitcoin's price on July 9, 2026 across two major prediction platforms. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at noon ET, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second average at 5 PM EDT. Both platforms offer granular price brackets to capture the settlement value.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two independent data sources, timestamps 5 hours apart, and different aggregation methodologies create structural divergence. Bitcoin price volatility over a 5-hour window and index vs. spot price differences will likely produce different settlement outcomes.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket settles at noon ET using Binance spot; Kalshi settles at 5 PM EDT using BRTI index. Bitcoin's price can move significantly in 5 hours. Monitor both sources independently and do not cross-hedge assuming they will resolve identically.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on July 9, 2026. Single exchange spot price. Tie-breaking: if price falls exactly between brackets, resolves to higher range bracket. Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with 1m candles selected.
  • Kalshi: Uses CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) 60-second simple average at 5 PM EDT on July 9, 2026. Aggregated index methodology. Covers 80 granular price brackets in 250 increments from below 51750 to above 71249.99. All brackets resolve to Yes if BRTI falls within range.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on July 9, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price range, with resolution to Yes if the 60-second average falls within that range. The official price is calculated as the average of all 60 RTI prices collected during the final minute before market expiration.

Frequently asked questions

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates distinct liquidity pools, user bases, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps. Polymarket may attract retail traders focused on narrow ranges, while Kalshi draws institutional flow with different risk appetites. Order book depth, settlement rules, and withdrawal policies also vary, influencing how traders price identical outcomes. Arbitrage opportunities emerge when one platform prices a Bitcoin range significantly higher or lower than the other, though transaction costs and platform friction often prevent full convergence. Monitoring both venues reveals where smart money is positioning and helps identify mispricings.

Major catalysts include Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data, and geopolitical developments that affect risk appetite for volatile assets. Bitcoin-specific events—such as regulatory clarity, institutional adoption milestones, or network upgrades—can shift trader positioning sharply. Macroeconomic shocks, equity market selloffs, or shifts in real interest rates often correlate with Bitcoin volatility and will influence how traders price this market. Technical levels and on-chain metrics also matter; large whale transactions or exchange inflows can signal accumulation or distribution phases. Monitoring these signals helps traders anticipate moves before they fully price into this market.