TOTAL VOLUME:

$122.1b

24H VOL:

$145,283,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,477,274,218

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,293,320,676

334,876

Markets across

31,971

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,017

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Bitcoin above ___ on September 1?
polymarket
opinion
kalshi

Bitcoin above ___ on September 1?

Total volume:
$1,988,749
Volume 24h:
$1,334,016
335%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$288,115
5%

Below $75,000.00

 - Kalshi

Below $75,000.00 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Time left: 25d:00h:14m

Will BTC trimmed mean be below $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

50%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 51¢ buys you 196 shares | Odds: 50% Total Payout: $196 | Net Profit: $96 Multiplier: 1.96x | ROI: 96% APY not meaningful 25 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Below $75,000.00

Trade
50%
2%
Yes 51¢No 50¢
1¢
N/A
$41,139
20%
N/A
$24,480
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $72,500.00

Trade
32%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
N/A
$35,260
17%
N/A
$20,186
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $70,000.00

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
N/A
$25,515
6%
N/A
$21,566
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $67,500.00

Trade
11%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
N/A
$13,383
8%
N/A
$12,315
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $65,000.00

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$74,955
0.25%
N/A
$55,041
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $62,500.00

Trade
6%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$35,410
0.28%
N/A
$23,827
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $60,000.00

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$33,891
17%
N/A
$30,548
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $57,500.00

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$52,594
0.72%
N/A
$50,782
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $52,500.00

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3¢No 99¢
2¢
N/A
$15,850
11%
N/A
$15,698
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $55,000.00

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$22,741
0%
N/A
$20,405
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $50,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$10,307
0%
N/A
$10,092
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $47,500.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,561
5%
N/A
$1,561
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $45,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,114
0%
N/A
$1,114
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $35,000.00

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$500
0%
N/A
$500
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $32,500.00

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $37,500.00

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $40,000.00

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Below $42,500.00

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d
active
polymarket

74,000

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$325,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

74,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76,000

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$306,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

76,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$144,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

72,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$62,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 40

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin’s trimmed mean falling below $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, currently estimated at 55.0%. Aggregated from Polymarket, Opinion, and Kalshi, this event resolves based on the Binance BTC/USDT 1 minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on September 1. The second most likely outcome is that the BTC trimmed mean will be below $72500.00 by the same date, with a 40.0% probability. Traders should watch the Binance BTC/USDT price as it approaches September 1 to see if it confirms or challenges the current consensus.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets consistently use Binance BTC/USDT price data at 12:00 ET on September 1 to determine resolution, differing only in their respective price thresholds.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1 minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on September 1

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to "Yes" if Binance BTC/USDT 1 minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on September 1 is higher than the specified threshold
  • Market resolves to "No" if the price is equal to or below the specified threshold
  • Price precision is determined by Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Market Closure: If Binance is unavailable at the exact resolution time, the last available price before 12:00 ET will be used
  • Price Rounding: All prices are evaluated to the nearest cent as reported by Binance
Timing: Resolution occurs at 12:00 ET on September 1, based on the Binance BTC/USDT 1 minute candle close priceOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple price thresholds to determine if Bitcoin's price falls below any of them at any moment between issuance and September 30, 2026. For each threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes' if, at any minute during the period, the trimmed mean price—calculated by removing the top and bottom 20% of minute-by-minute price data—drops below the specified level. This trimmed mean approach mitigates the influence of extreme price fluctuations, ensuring a more stable assessment. If CF Benchmarks data is missing or incomplete at expiration, all affected markets resolve to 'No'. The measurement consistently applies to the specified Bitcoin version as designated by the Exchange.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price market dashboard tracks aggregated predictions across platforms for the likelihood of Bitcoin trading above a specific level by September 1. It shows combined volume of $1,988,749 and 24-hour volume of $1,319,533, reflecting overall trader sentiment. The dashboard updates in real time as bets are placed, letting users see how the market consensus shifts. Because this market pulls data from multiple venues, it offers a unified view of where traders expect Bitcoin to be priced at the exact close of the period. This snapshot helps both casual observers and active participants gauge risk and potential direction.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader sentiment, often diverging from current spot prices due to expectations about future volatility or macro events. In this market, odds embed probabilities of Bitcoin reaching a certain threshold by the deadline, which may be higher or lower than spot forecasts depending on perceived risks and market momentum.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will reflect whether Bitcoin’s closing price meets the specified condition on that date, based on widely accepted data sources.

Macroeconomic announcements, such as central bank policies or inflation data, often drive sharp moves in this market by altering expectations for interest rates and liquidity. Major technological upgrades or security incidents around Bitcoin can also shift trader sentiment quickly. Additionally, geopolitical tensions or regulatory headlines that impact crypto exchanges may influence bets. As Oct 1, 2026 approaches, any surprise events—whether bullish or bearish—will likely cause rapid repricing, especially given the tight timing. Traders will watch these catalysts closely to anticipate direction.