TOTAL VOLUME:
$114.4b
24H VOL:
$133,579,739
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,317,432,675
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,169,007,503
328,339
Markets across
32,060
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,011
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
$75M
- Predict
$75M - Predict
31%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 14
Aug 15
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Aug 21
Vol.
$37.2k
·
Resolves Oct 1, 2026
$
This market tracks whether MarsCoin will reach a $75M Fully Diluted Valuation before October 2026, with an aggregated consensus probability of 21.3% for the leading outcome across Limitless and Predict, resolving against Dexscreener's MarsCoin/SPCXB pair data. The second outcome, reaching a specific price for SpaceX (SPCX) in August, holds an 18.1% probability. Watch for any 1-minute candle on the MarsCoin/SPCXB pair reaching the $75M FDV threshold before the October 1, 2026 deadline to resolve this market.
The appropriate market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any 1 minute candle for MarsCoin/SPCXB during the time period specified (from 4:30 AM ET on August 7, 2026 to 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026) has a final "H" price that, when multiplied by the total supply, yields an FDV equal to or greater than the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Dexscreener, specifically the MarsCoin/SPCXB pair FDV value reached by using the High prices available at https://dexscreener.com/bsc/0x94f3ed36706c746ad59fadcaf271b7431ab1d8f1 with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. For the purposes of this market, FDV is defined as (total supply - burned supply) * price. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Dexscreener MarsCoin/SPCXB trading pair, exclusively for the coin address 0xfe189e97832da1573e4e4ff034f4ffc3a15c7777. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve to "YES" if, at any point during August ’26, the “High” price of the TradingView monthly candle for SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=NASDAQ%3ASPCX) is equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of resolution, all prices will be rounded to two decimal places using standard rounding rules. If the relevant TradingView daily candle data is unavailable, incomplete, or clearly invalid due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official NASDAQ chart for SpaceX may be used to determine whether the specified price was reached during regular NASDAQ trading hours within the specified period.
On Predict, this market is priced through trader bets that reflect expected FDV milestones for MarsCoin, often diverging from short-term spot price swings. The odds here capture longer-term bullish or bearish sentiment about the project’s adoption and tokenomics, while spot markets react to immediate trading volume and exchange flows. Because this market looks toward a specific valuation target over an extended horizon, its implied probability can signal confidence in MarsCoin’s growth trajectory beyond what current exchange prices alone suggest.
On Predict and Limitless, traders set prices independently, leading to different odds for the same event. Predict and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Predict currently favors Will $MarsCoin hit $75M FDV before October? at 28.2%, while Limitless leans toward Which price will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in August?: ↑ 160.00 at 18.1%. Factors such as liquidity differences, user base biases, and separate fee structures can widen the spread between the two venues, creating a 10.1 point gap that reflects distinct betting dynamics rather than a single consensus view.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. At that point, MarsCoin’s fully diluted valuation will be compared against the stated thresholds, and the market will settle based on which target has been met or exceeded. No single data provider controls this process; instead, independent verification from trusted sources determines the final result.
Several signals could shift odds in this market over the coming months. Major announcements from the MarsCoin team—such as partnerships, protocol upgrades, or exchange listings—might boost confidence in higher FDV targets. Conversely, negative developments like security breaches or declining trading volume could push probabilities toward lower outcomes. Macro trends affecting the broader crypto market, including regulatory shifts or interest rate changes, will also influence trader sentiment and alter the implied chances for each possible FDV level before Oct 1, 2026.