TOTAL VOLUME:

$54.1b

24H VOL:

$198,735,462

24H TRANSACTIONS:

527,413,651

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,238,334,809

499,092

Markets across

13,695

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

1,769

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

51%

VS.

Kalshi:

49%

BETA
Dashboards
polymarket
predict
Trending

Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?

Total volume:
$149,629
Volume 24h:
$3,242
27%
Liquidity:
$52,639
5%
Open interest:
$41,508
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets across both platforms apply the same binary resolution criteria: token must be officially launched, actively tradable and transferable by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline date, with announcements explicitly excluded.

Primary resolution logic:

Arc official sources (https://x.com/arc), with consensus of credible reporting as secondary verification

Core resolution logic:

  • Token must be officially launched by Arc
  • Token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable (not merely announced)
  • Resolution deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the specified date
  • Announcements of future token launches do not qualify for Yes resolution
  • If token is launched but not yet tradable by deadline, resolves No

Edge cases & Clarifications:

  • Announcement vs. Launch: An announcement or commitment to launch a token does not trigger Yes resolution. The token must be actively trading and transferable by the deadline.
  • Limited vs. Public Availability: Token must be publicly transferable and tradable, not restricted to insiders or limited beta participants.
  • Multiple Deadline Markets: Earlier deadline markets (Dec 31 2025, Mar 31 2026) resolve No if token launches after that date but before later deadlines. Later markets resolve Yes if token launched by their deadline.
  • Source Conflict: If Arc official sources conflict with credible reporting, Arc official sources take precedence; credible reporting consensus used only if Arc sources are unclear or unavailable.

Timing:

Resolution occurs at 11:59 PM ET on each market's specified deadline date. Markets are independent; earlier deadlines do not affect later deadline markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.