TOTAL VOLUME:

$122.1b

24H VOL:

$145,283,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,477,274,218

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,293,320,676

334,876

Markets across

31,971

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,017

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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What price will Bitcoin hit August 31-September 6?
limitless
polymarket
kalshi
opinion

What price will Bitcoin hit August 31-September 6?

Total volume:
$2,213,110
Volume 24h:
$480,030
20%
Liquidity:
$668,404
23%
Open interest:
$386,629
19%

Above $82,500.00

all

4 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Opinion

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

Time left: 25d:00h:14m

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Sep 30, 2026?

77%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% High Projected APY: 4,442% 25 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $82,500.00

Trade
77%
8%
Yes 77¢No 27¢
4¢
N/A
$102,310
29%
N/A
$50,696
3w 4d
active
polymarket

↑ 82,000

View
100%
92%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
N/A
$136,274
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
Yes
opinion

↑ 82,000

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
No
limitless

↑ 82,000

View
N/A
N/A
99.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
88.5%
Yes 88.5¢No 13.6¢
Avg: 34.6¢Max: 99.8¢
kalshi

Above $85,000.00

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 49¢No 52¢
1¢
N/A
$124,013
4%
N/A
$58,972
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Above $87,500.00

Trade
30%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
N/A
$75,551
13%
N/A
$48,075
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Above $90,000.00

Trade
20%
Yes 21¢No 81¢
2¢
N/A
$82,655
3%
N/A
$56,489
3w 4d
active
polymarket

↑ 90,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$56,906
$65,511
14%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
opinion

↑ 90,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
-95.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
limitless

↑ 90,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
0.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
10%
Yes 10.5¢No 90.5¢
Avg: -31.1¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Above $92,500.00

Trade
14%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$67,002
9%
N/A
$29,522
3w 4d
active
polymarket

↑ 92,000

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$58,475
$52,961
31%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
opinion

↑ 92,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
-95.8¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
limitless

↑ 92,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
0.6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
7%
Yes 7.1¢No 93.5¢
Avg: -31.4¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Above $97,500.00

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$114,438
12%
N/A
$63,575
3w 4d
active
kalshi

Above $95,000.00

Trade
7%
3%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$78,293
17%
N/A
$44,357
3w 4d
active
polymarket

↓ 78,000

Trade
7%
14%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
$24,994
$48,474
91%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
polymarket

↑ 82,000

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
$26,680
$7,620
588%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
polymarket

↑ 84,000

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99¢
0.3¢
$33,417
$150,132
18%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
limitless

↑ 84,000

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99¢
1.7¢
N/A
$214
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
opinion

↑ 84,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
-87¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99¢
Avg: -28.3¢Max: 1.7¢
limitless

↓ 76,000

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 1¢No 99.1¢
1.7¢
N/A
$180
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
polymarket

↓ 76,000

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.3¢
0.2¢
$33,390
$146,899
33%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
opinion

↓ 76,000

Trade
N/A
N/A
-94.2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.2¢
Avg: -30.8¢Max: 1.7¢
polymarket

↑ 86,000

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.7¢
0.5¢
$34,543
$77,192
14%
N/A
N/A
1d 14m
active
Total markets: 25 of 56

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin’s trimmed mean being above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Currently, the aggregated view from Limitless, Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion platforms indicates a 76.0% probability of this outcome. Resolution will be based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data. Traders should watch the period between August 31 and September 6, as the markets are structured around Bitcoin’s high or low price during that timeframe to determine settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution logic: Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candles determine outcomes during the specified date range.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data

Core resolution logic:

  • Markets resolve based on Bitcoin's high price for upward thresholds (>= specified price) or low price for downward thresholds (<= specified price)
  • Only Binance BTC/USDT data is used; other exchanges or trading pairs are irrelevant
  • Resolution occurs immediately when any qualifying candle appears during August 31-September 6 (12:00 AM ET to 11:59 PM ET)

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Market Creation Timing: For markets created after the date range begins, resolution still depends solely on price action during August 31-September 6
  • Candle Boundary: A candle closing exactly at the threshold price counts as a qualifying event
Timing: Immediate resolution upon occurrence of qualifying price action during the specified date rangeOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

What price will Bitcoin hit August 31-September 6?

Kalshi

These markets resolve to Yes if, at any point between issuance and 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the price of Bitcoin exceeds the specified threshold. Settlement evaluates minute-by-minute price data throughout the market duration using the CF BRTI price feed. For each minute, a trimmed mean is calculated by removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of cumulative price values, then averaging the remaining data to mitigate the impact of extreme spikes or drops. If this trimmed mean surpasses the threshold for any single minute, the market resolves to Yes. Should CF Benchmarks data be unavailable or incomplete at expiration, all affected markets resolve to No. The specific Bitcoin version or ticker will be designated by the Exchange where multiple versions exist.

Limitless

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Opinion

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if, during the date range specified in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date), any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT reaches the price specified in the title in the specified direction — for an "above" market, a final "High" price equal to or greater than that price; for a "below" market, a final "Low" price equal to or less than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Bitcoin price range market aggregates predictions from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of different price ranges over the specified period. It displays cumulative volume of $2,209,332 and 24-hour volume of $304,314, offering a consensus view of market sentiment. By consolidating data, it helps users see where the collective wisdom lands for this market, highlighting any emerging trends or divergences across prediction venues.

Prediction market odds offer a forward-looking perspective that often diverges from current spot prices. In this market, they reflect trader expectations for Bitcoin's range over the next few weeks, incorporating macro factors, regulatory news, and market sentiment. While spot prices show present conditions, odds capture anticipated moves, sometimes revealing over- or undervaluation relative to real-time trading. This gap can signal upcoming volatility or shifts in market dynamics.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is based on the price range that best matches recorded data at the specified time window, eliminating speculation. Traders should watch for any last-minute shifts in market sentiment or external shocks that could affect the final determination.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles, including major economic announcements, regulatory updates, or unexpected macroeconomic trends. Technological developments within the Bitcoin ecosystem, such as network upgrades or security events, may also influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical tensions or shifts in institutional investment patterns often create volatility, reshaping probability assessments in the final days leading to Oct 1, 2026.