TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 2?
- Polymarket
Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 2? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 2, 2026
$
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Monday, November 2, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Bitcoin ETF flows on Monday, November 2, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0. If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title. The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional spot price expectations. While spot prices reflect immediate buying and selling pressure, this market aggregates the informed beliefs of many traders. If a significant difference emerges between the implied probability from this market and analyst forecasts, it could indicate that traders possess information not yet reflected in conventional price discovery. It's important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking, attempting to anticipate future events rather than simply mirroring current conditions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome, Bitcoin ETF Flows on November 2?, has a chance percentage of 50.0% and a total volume of $0.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual Bitcoin ETF flows observed on November 2?. The specific details of the flows will be assessed against publicly available data to determine the final result of this market. Traders should monitor news sources and official announcements as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential developments that could influence the outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major news regarding regulatory approval or denial of Bitcoin ETFs would likely cause a substantial shift in probabilities. Unexpected macroeconomic data releases, particularly those related to inflation or interest rates, could also influence investor sentiment towards Bitcoin and, consequently, this market. Finally, any significant announcements from major financial institutions regarding their involvement with Bitcoin ETFs could also trigger price movements in the Bitcoin ETF flows market.