TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

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$235,918,089

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

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4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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63%

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Bitcoin dominance on October 9?
polymarket

Bitcoin dominance on October 9?

Volume:
$262

60.00%-61.00%

 - Polymarket

60.00%-61.00% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 4:34 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

60.00%-61.00%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<57.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>61.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

57.00%-58.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58.00%-59.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

59.00%-60.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the "Close" value of the TradingView 1-minute candle for Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the specified date. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". Values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. TradingView reports CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D to 2 decimal places. A 1-minute candle must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next 1-minute candle is published, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve once the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on the specified date is finalized. If the value is unavailable, this market will resolve according to the value as first displayed once data is again available, no later than the end of the second calendar day (ET) after the specified date. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D symbol has been discontinued, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. No substitute index or data provider will be used. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to TradingView differing from other sources. This period may extend past the resolution deadline above. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) "Close" values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D, with the chart settings on "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about Bitcoin dominance according to TradingView's CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D index, not according to any other sources or calculations of dominance.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the "Close" value of the TradingView 1-minute candle for Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the specified date. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". Values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. TradingView reports CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D to 2 decimal places. A 1-minute candle must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next 1-minute candle is published, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve once the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on the specified date is finalized. If the value is unavailable, this market will resolve according to the value as first displayed once data is again available, no later than the end of the second calendar day (ET) after the specified date. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D symbol has been discontinued, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. No substitute index or data provider will be used. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to TradingView differing from other sources. This period may extend past the resolution deadline above. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) "Close" values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D, with the chart settings on "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about Bitcoin dominance according to TradingView's CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D index, not according to any other sources or calculations of dominance.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bitcoin dominance market tracks the current implied probability of various dominance ranges on October 9. You can view the odds for each possible outcome, along with the 24-hour volume of $200 and total volume of $262. This allows you to see which outcomes traders are currently favoring and how actively the market is being traded. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a strong expectation that Bitcoin dominance will fall within a specific range on October 9. This contrasts with broader spot price expectations, which are often based on technical analysis or news events. While spot price predictions can be highly variable, this market provides a concentrated view of what informed traders believe about a specific future outcome. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate diverse perspectives, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than individual analyses.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, meaning that if more traders believe Bitcoin dominance will be high, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that responds to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final Bitcoin dominance percentage will be determined by data from a widely-recognized cryptocurrency data aggregator. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the outcome, based on the shares they held. Traders should monitor the market closely as the resolution date approaches to understand the potential implications for their positions.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major news regarding Bitcoin adoption, regulatory changes affecting cryptocurrencies, or substantial shifts in the broader financial markets could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected developments related to Ethereum or other major altcoins could also influence Bitcoin dominance. Additionally, large-scale movements in Bitcoin’s price, driven by institutional investment or macroeconomic factors, are likely to cause fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in the odds.