TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Bitcoin dominance on October 23?
polymarket

Bitcoin dominance on October 23?

Volume:
$210

60.00%-61.00%

 - Polymarket

60.00%-61.00% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 4:12 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

60.00%-61.00%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<58.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58.00%-59.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>62.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

59.00%-60.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

61.00%-62.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the "Close" value of the TradingView 1-minute candle for Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the specified date. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". Values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. TradingView reports CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D to 2 decimal places. A 1-minute candle must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next 1-minute candle is published, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve once the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on the specified date is finalized. If the value is unavailable, this market will resolve according to the value as first displayed once data is again available, no later than the end of the second calendar day (ET) after the specified date. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D symbol has been discontinued, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. No substitute index or data provider will be used. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to TradingView differing from other sources. This period may extend past the resolution deadline above. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) "Close" values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D, with the chart settings on "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about Bitcoin dominance according to TradingView's CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D index, not according to any other sources or calculations of dominance.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the "Close" value of the TradingView 1-minute candle for Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the specified date. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". Values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. TradingView reports CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D to 2 decimal places. A 1-minute candle must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next 1-minute candle is published, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve once the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on the specified date is finalized. If the value is unavailable, this market will resolve according to the value as first displayed once data is again available, no later than the end of the second calendar day (ET) after the specified date. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D symbol has been discontinued, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. No substitute index or data provider will be used. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to TradingView differing from other sources. This period may extend past the resolution deadline above. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) "Close" values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D, with the chart settings on "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about Bitcoin dominance according to TradingView's CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D index, not according to any other sources or calculations of dominance.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bitcoin dominance market tracks the current implied probability of Bitcoin dominance being above 50% on October 23, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $136. The total volume traded in this market is $210, indicating the level of interest from forecasters. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than some traditional spot price expectations for Bitcoin dominance. While analysts often rely on technical indicators and market sentiment, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a probabilistic forecast of whether Bitcoin will maintain its dominance. The implied probability from this market offers a unique data point, potentially highlighting areas where forecasters disagree with conventional wisdom regarding the future trajectory of Bitcoin's share of the cryptocurrency market capitalization.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome, and the price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the settlement date, the more the price will reflect the collective prediction of traders. Higher demand for shares indicating Bitcoin dominance above 50% will drive up the price, while increased selling pressure will lower it, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of that outcome.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization represented by Bitcoin at a specific time on October 23, 2026. If Bitcoin's dominance exceeds 50% at that moment, shares predicting 'Yes' will payout; otherwise, shares predicting 'No' will payout. The precise methodology for determining the market capitalization will be defined by Polymarket.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 23, 2026. Major regulatory announcements impacting cryptocurrency, significant technological advancements in Bitcoin or competing blockchains, and large-scale institutional adoption of Bitcoin could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected macroeconomic events, such as shifts in global monetary policy or geopolitical instability, could also drive changes in investor risk appetite and affect Bitcoin's dominance. Additionally, any major security breaches or hacks affecting either Bitcoin or its competitors could cause substantial price fluctuations and impact this market.