TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Bitcoin dominance on October 16?
polymarket

Bitcoin dominance on October 16?

Volume:
$2,262

60.00%-61.00%

 - Polymarket

60.00%-61.00% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 9:55 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

60.00%-61.00%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,098
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<58.00%

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

>62.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

59.00%-60.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58.00%-59.00%

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

61.00%-62.00%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the "Close" value of the TradingView 1-minute candle for Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the specified date. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". Values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. TradingView reports CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D to 2 decimal places. A 1-minute candle must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next 1-minute candle is published, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve once the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on the specified date is finalized. If the value is unavailable, this market will resolve according to the value as first displayed once data is again available, no later than the end of the second calendar day (ET) after the specified date. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D symbol has been discontinued, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. No substitute index or data provider will be used. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to TradingView differing from other sources. This period may extend past the resolution deadline above. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) "Close" values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D, with the chart settings on "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about Bitcoin dominance according to TradingView's CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D index, not according to any other sources or calculations of dominance.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the "Close" value of the TradingView 1-minute candle for Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) closing at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the specified date. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". Values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. TradingView reports CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D to 2 decimal places. A 1-minute candle must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next 1-minute candle is published, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve once the 1-minute candle closing at 12:00 PM ET on the specified date is finalized. If the value is unavailable, this market will resolve according to the value as first displayed once data is again available, no later than the end of the second calendar day (ET) after the specified date. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D symbol has been discontinued, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. No substitute index or data provider will be used. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to TradingView differing from other sources. This period may extend past the resolution deadline above. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the Bitcoin Dominance (CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D) "Close" values available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D, with the chart settings on "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about Bitcoin dominance according to TradingView's CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D index, not according to any other sources or calculations of dominance.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bitcoin dominance market tracks the current implied probability of Bitcoin dominance being above 50% on October 16, 2026. It also displays the trading volume, which is currently $2,155, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,262. Users can view the price history of the market, allowing them to analyze how predictions have shifted over time. The dashboard provides a clear overview of market sentiment and activity related to this specific prediction.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket reflect a different perspective than some traditional financial analysts. While some analysts predict a continued decline in Bitcoin's dominance, this market suggests a notable probability of it remaining above 50%. This divergence highlights how prediction markets can offer a unique, real-time assessment of potential outcomes, driven by the collective wisdom of traders. It's important to note that these are forward-looking expectations, not reflections of current spot prices, and represent a probabilistic view of the future.

On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of Bitcoin dominance exceeding 50% on the resolution date. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on supply and demand, influenced by news, events, and overall market sentiment. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bitcoin dominance percentage as reported by a widely recognized cryptocurrency data aggregator at a specific point in time on October 16, 2026. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual outcome. The market will close prior to this date to prevent manipulation and ensure a fair resolution process.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, could shift trader sentiment. Significant technological advancements or security breaches affecting Bitcoin or its competitors could also play a role. Macroeconomic events, such as changes in interest rates or inflation, could influence investor risk appetite and impact the demand for Bitcoin. Finally, unexpected news regarding the adoption of Bitcoin by institutions or governments could also cause substantial movement in this market.