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Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 975,744?
polymarket

Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 975,744?

Oct 30, 2026, 1:45 AM EST - Nov 16, 2026, 2:03 AM EST
Total volume:
N/A
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$247
35%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Down >7%

 - Polymarket

Down >7% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 16, 2026

Time left: 13d:11h:55m

Will the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 975,744 be down more than 7%?

47%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 82¢ buys you 122 shares | Odds: 47% Total Payout: $122 | Net Profit: $22 Multiplier: 1.22x | ROI: 22% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 13 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Down >7%

Trade
47%
1%
Yes 82¢No 89¢
71¢
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 11h
Active
polymarket

Down 3-7%

Trade
47%
19%
Yes 82¢No 89¢
71¢
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 11h
Active
polymarket

Down 0-3%

Trade
39%
12%
Yes 74¢No 97¢
71¢
$38
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 11h
Active
polymarket

Up 0-3%

Trade
38%
3%
Yes 73¢No 98¢
71¢
$39
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 11h
Active
polymarket

Up 3-7%

Trade
38%
5%
Yes 73¢No 98¢
71¢
$43
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 11h
Active
polymarket

Up >7%

Trade
38%
4%
Yes 73¢No 98¢
71¢
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 11h
Active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment that occurs at the specified block height. Block 975,744 is the next difficulty retarget height and is currently expected to be reached on or around November 13, 2026 (ET). If the displayed percentage falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The difficulty adjustment is the percentage change in Bitcoin network difficulty that takes effect at the specified block height, as displayed in the "Change" column of the Adjustments table on the mempool.space Mining Dashboard. A positive percentage is an "up" adjustment and a negative percentage is a "down" adjustment. If mempool.space does not display the adjustment for the specified block height within 2 calendar days (ET) after that block height is reached, the adjustment percentage as shown by a consensus of credible block explorers will be used. If block 975,744 has not been reached by 11:59 PM ET on December 11, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. The resolution source for this market is the mempool.space Mining Dashboard at https://mempool.space/mining, specifically the "Change" column of the Adjustments table for the specified block height. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the difficulty adjustment percentage as displayed on mempool.space, or, where mempool.space does not display it as described above, the consensus of credible block explorers. Values from other sources will not otherwise be considered for the resolution of this market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment that occurs at the specified block height. Block 975,744 is the next difficulty retarget height and is currently expected to be reached on or around November 13, 2026 (ET). If the displayed percentage falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The difficulty adjustment is the percentage change in Bitcoin network difficulty that takes effect at the specified block height, as displayed in the "Change" column of the Adjustments table on the mempool.space Mining Dashboard. A positive percentage is an "up" adjustment and a negative percentage is a "down" adjustment. If mempool.space does not display the adjustment for the specified block height within 2 calendar days (ET) after that block height is reached, the adjustment percentage as shown by a consensus of credible block explorers will be used. If block 975,744 has not been reached by 11:59 PM ET on December 11, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket. The resolution source for this market is the mempool.space Mining Dashboard at https://mempool.space/mining, specifically the "Change" column of the Adjustments table for the specified block height. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the difficulty adjustment percentage as displayed on mempool.space, or, where mempool.space does not display it as described above, the consensus of credible block explorers. Values from other sources will not otherwise be considered for the resolution of this market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment market tracks the current odds of various outcomes regarding the percentage change in difficulty at block 975,744. You'll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. Currently, the highest probability outcome, with a chance of 46.5%, is that the difficulty adjustment will be down more than 7%. Total volume for this market is $0.

Currently, the odds in this market reflect expectations about the upcoming Bitcoin difficulty adjustment. These expectations are formed by traders assessing factors like recent block times, hash rate changes, and overall network activity. While spot price expectations for Bitcoin itself can be found through exchanges and analyst reports, this market focuses specifically on the difficulty adjustment. Comparing the implied probability of a significant difficulty decrease in this market to analyst forecasts for hash rate changes can offer insights into market sentiment and potential network adjustments.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes for the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a probability distribution. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, incorporating various data points and anticipating potential network changes. The market's depth and volume indicate the level of conviction behind each potential outcome.

This market resolves around Nov 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 975,744 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final difficulty adjustment percentage change will be compared against the outcome categories defined within this market to determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on data publicly available on the Bitcoin blockchain and confirmed by widely recognized sources within the cryptocurrency community.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected changes in the Bitcoin network hash rate, large-scale mining farm activity, or significant shifts in block propagation times could all influence trader sentiment. News regarding regulatory changes affecting Bitcoin mining, or major technological advancements in mining hardware, could also move the market. Additionally, any unforeseen network congestion or security events could alter expectations regarding the difficulty adjustment, leading to price fluctuations in this market.