TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:06 PM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests an 80% probability that Bitcoin will be above a certain price on October 5, 2026. This differs from typical spot price expectations, which are based on current market conditions and short-term trading activity. Prediction markets, however, reflect a broader range of factors, including long-term forecasts and potential future events that could influence the price. It’s a forward-looking assessment, rather than a snapshot of the present.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of Bitcoin being above a certain price on the resolution date. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the price will be above the target, the higher the contract price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Bitcoin price at a specific time on October 5, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source. Traders will then be paid out or have their positions closed based on whether the prediction came to pass. The market's outcome is determined by objective data, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major regulatory changes regarding cryptocurrency, large-scale adoption by institutions, or unexpected macroeconomic events could all shift market sentiment. Technological advancements related to Bitcoin, such as improvements to scalability or security, could also play a role. Furthermore, significant news regarding the global economy or geopolitical stability could influence investor confidence and, consequently, the price of Bitcoin, thereby affecting this market.
