TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 6:06 PM EST
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Opinion
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Opinion
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to typical spot price expectations. While spot prices reflect immediate market conditions, this market aggregates the beliefs of individuals betting on a future outcome. The implied probability from Opinion suggests a different view of Bitcoin's potential price than what might be indicated by current trading activity. This divergence can be valuable for understanding broader market sentiment and identifying potential opportunities, as traders weigh their own analysis against the collective wisdom of the crowd.
On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome. The price of these contracts directly reflects the probability of Bitcoin being above a specified level on October 30, 2026. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe the event will occur, the higher the price of the contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds are constantly updated to reflect the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on the actual Bitcoin price at the specified time. If the price is above the predetermined level, the market will resolve positively for those who predicted it would be. Conversely, if the price is at or below that level, the market will resolve negatively. The final price will be sourced from publicly available financial data.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market between now and Oct 30, 2026. Major regulatory announcements concerning cryptocurrency, significant adoption by institutional investors, or unexpected macroeconomic events could all impact the price of Bitcoin. Technological developments related to the Bitcoin network, such as upgrades or security breaches, could also play a role. Geopolitical instability or shifts in global financial markets are additional factors that could influence trader sentiment and, consequently, the odds within this market.
