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$154.3b

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2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

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events

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4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Bitcoin above ___ on October 30?
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be above the price on October 30?

Volume:
$1,748,792

76,000

 - Polymarket

76,000 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 12:11 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

76,000

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$54,980
$286,700
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

74,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$57,521
$232,100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

72,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
$107,519
$226,400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

80,000

View
0%
64%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$70,667
$308,448
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78,000

View
0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$34,468
$268,267
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84,000

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$55,711
$154,705
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82,000

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$23,540
$136,437
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$46,708
$68,401
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$45,940
$56,091
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$30,236
$10,276
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

92,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$84,515
$967
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be above $76,000 on October 30, 2024. Currently, the Polymarket market assigns a 100.0% probability to that outcome. Resolution will be based on the 12:00 ET closing price of the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). Traders should closely watch the price action leading up to October 30, 2026, as that is when the final Binance candle will close and the market will be settled.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional spot price expectations. While analysts and polls suggest a range of potential Bitcoin prices, this market provides a way to quantify collective belief about whether the price will exceed a specific threshold by Oct 30, 2026. The market aggregates the views of numerous traders, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than individual opinions. Discrepancies between the market price and external forecasts can present opportunities for informed traders, though it’s important to remember that prediction markets are not always correct.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the price of Bitcoin as reported by a widely recognized and trusted exchange at a specified time on October 30. The specific price used for resolution will be determined by Polymarket's rules, ensuring a fair and transparent process. Traders should review the market’s specific terms on Polymarket for complete details regarding the resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major macroeconomic announcements, such as interest rate decisions or inflation reports, could impact investor sentiment towards Bitcoin. Regulatory developments, like new legislation regarding cryptocurrency, could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Unexpected news events, such as hacks or security breaches affecting major exchanges, could also trigger volatility. Finally, broader market trends in risk assets and the overall health of the global economy will likely influence trading activity in this market.