TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.1b

24H VOL:

$114,507,511

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,782,936,628

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,734,271,890

505,510

Markets across

37,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,851

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Bitcoin above ___ on October 3?
opinion
polymarket

Will Bitcoin be above its price on October 3?

Total volume:
$1,549,729
Volume 24h:
$1,114,579
242%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$978,553N/A

74,000

 - Polymarket

74,000 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Closed: Oct 3, 1:24 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

74,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$401,832
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

84,000

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$225,091
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

76,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$198,127
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

82,000

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$135,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

80,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$75,885
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

78,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$55,047
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

86,000

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$144,108
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$139,645
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$89,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

94,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54,114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

92,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,930
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the probability of Bitcoin’s price exceeding $74,000 on October 3rd. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Opinion and Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to this outcome. Resolution will be determined by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data at 12:00 PM ET on October 3rd, as detailed in the resolution rules. Traders should watch the price of Bitcoin leading up to October 3rd, as the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms utilize the same resolution source and logic, differing only in the specific price threshold being tested.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution depends on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on October 3rd.
  • A market resolves to 'Yes' if the close price is strictly above the specified threshold.
  • A market resolves to 'No' if the close price is at or below the specified threshold.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Binance Outage: If Binance is unavailable at the resolution time, PredictionHero will attempt to find a reliable alternative data source. If no suitable source is found, the market may be canceled.
  • Candle Formation: The 1-minute candle must fully form at 12:00 PM ET on October 3rd for the market to resolve. If a candle does not form, the market may be canceled.
Timing: Markets will resolve as soon as the 12:00 PM ET Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle has fully formed on October 3rd.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Opinion, this market tracks the price of Bitcoin on October 3. Currently, there's a strong consensus view across both platforms, with a combined volume of $1,549,729. This dashboard aggregates data from these prediction markets to provide a comprehensive overview of expectations for the Bitcoin price on that date. The current outlook suggests a high degree of confidence in a specific price range, though perspectives can shift as new information emerges. Examining both Polymarket and Opinion allows for a more nuanced understanding of the collective forecast for the Bitcoin price on October 3.

Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The prices on Polymarket and Opinion may differ due to variations in user base, trading volume, and market-specific rules. Polymarket currently favors a price above $74,000 at 100%, while Opinion has a different leading outcome. These discrepancies can arise from differing levels of information access, risk appetite, or simply the unique dynamics of each platform's trading environment. Furthermore, the volume of $1,083,297 traded on each platform can influence price discovery, leading to temporary divergences in expectations for the Bitcoin price on October 3.